Voting has already started in the long-awaited U.S. Presidential election, but we may not know the result tomorrow.
Nearly all polls show Joe Biden with a lead over Donald Trump as voting begins, but as the wagering numbers show, plenty of people still believe in Trump.
And why not, after his remarkable win in 2016, one of the biggest surprises in American election history.
Admittedly things are different in 2020. There’s the impact of coronavirus, the unrest in the streets and a much higher voter turnout driven primarily by the Democrats.
But still, even with an eight percentage point lead in the polls, no one in the Biden camp believes it’s a done deal.
Stand by for what promises to be one of the craziest elections in years.
1. Voting starts tonight
If you’re a night owl or a political animal and want to get stuck into the US Election early, polls are already open in a number of states. You can follow online or on any of the American channels – CNN, Fox News, MSNBC – and get a taste of the early returns, which to be honest, don’t mean that much.
The first votes are cast in Dixville Notch, NH:
Joe Biden: 5
Donald Trump: 0
— Jim Sciutto (@jimsciutto) November 3, 2020
2. We’ll know more around midday tomorrow
Polls close in a number of keys states between 11am and 1pm AEDT tomorrow. These states – Georgia, Ohio, North Carolina, Michigan and Pennsylvania – are crucial to each candidate’s chances. In a normal year, TV networks would start making projections around this time, but because of so many mail-in ballots and the fact that so many got it wrong in 2016, they might be more careful and hold off.
3. We may not have a winner tomorrow
Most polls will close around 1pm AEDT tomorrow. But because there has been such an enormous number of mail-in votes, it may take days or – believe it or not – weeks to count all the votes in some states. If it’s an important state, there will be incredible scrutiny to avoid something similar to the Florida vote counting debacle in 2000.
4. No winner tomorrow is not a bad thing
Given the unrest in American cities this year and the fact that cities (and even the White House) are boarding up in preparation for potential violence, it shouldn’t be forgotten that plenty of other election results didn’t come in at the usual time.
We did not know Presidential winner for certain before midnight on election nights in 1960, 1968, 1976, 2000, 2004, 2016. No one should pretend there would be anything historically unusual if that happens again in 2020.
— Michael Beschloss (@BeschlossDC) November 1, 2020
5. Will the polls be right?
As mentioned, Biden carries a relatively large lead into Election Day, but many are suspicious of the polls after 2016. However, Biden seems to have a stronger lead than Hillary Clinton had four years ago, with his advantage in the swing states much larger than Hillary’s was. In addition, there are far fewer undecided voters this year; in other words, the odds of a last-minute swing from Biden to Trump seems highly unlikely.
Find Sportsbet’s range of markets for the U.S. Presidential Election here.