State Of Origin PreviewState Of Origin Tips
Queensland v New South Wales
Wednesday, July 11, 8pm
Suncorp Stadium, Brisbane
Best: Queensland +3.5 ($1.91)
Value: Queensland 1-12 ($3.40)
First Try: Corey Oates ($11)
Man of the Match: Cameron Munster ($10)

New South Wales wrapped up the 2018 State Of Origin series after their 18-14 win at ANZ Stadium in Game 2 and will travel to Brisbane full of confidence, hoping that their performances throughout this series will become a dynasty into the future. Both sides will still have plenty of motivation in this dead rubber. The Blues can make it a 3-0 whitewash if they can record the victory at Suncorp Stadium, while the Maroons will want a strong performance in front of their home fans in Brisbane and avoid the clean sweep. The Maroons will be without Greg Inglis and Kalyn Ponga due to injury, with Daly Cherry-Evans, Corey Oates and Tim Glasby recalled to the Queensland side. The Blues have added Tariq Sims to the side, with Matt Prior the unfortunate casualty. Titans enforcer Ryan James has been named as 18th man as cover for Blues skipper Boyd Cordner as he battles a calf injury in the lead-up to Wednesday night’s match.

Recent Form
Queensland had won 11 of 12 series before NSW secured the 2018 series with an 18-14 win at ANZ in Sydney. The match was statistically very even though Queensland conceded three 20-metre restarts to zero and it proved costly despite making twice as many linebreaks. The Blues have scored 16 or more points in six of the last seven Origins. Queensland have seven players from Top 4 teams and 11 players from Top 8 teams while NSW have 10 from Top 4 sides and 14 from Top 8 teams. Queensland have three players from bottom four clubs while NSW have three. The Maroons have won 60 of the 113 Origins with NSW winning 52 with the Maroons winning 14 of the last 23.

Key Matchup
Daly Cherry-Evans v Nathan Cleary. Daly Cherry-Evans has been given the nod over Ben Hunt for the No.7 Maroons jersey after Hunt put in a shocker in Game 2 of the series. DCE hasn’t played for Queensland since 2015, but now has an opportunity to make the jersey is own with a strong showing. Now that the series is in the bag for NSW, Nathan Cleary might be able to break the shackles. He’s been very strong defensively over the first two matches, but has allowed Panthers teammate James Maloney  to run the show. The Wolf can see Cleary being the NSW halfback for the next 10+ years, but would like to see a few more attacking stats to his name now that the pressure off.

Stats That Matter

– The underdog has covered 7 of the last 10 live Origin games.
– Home underdogs have covered 4 of the last 5 Origins.
– The road team has won seven of the last 14 Origins.
– The last seven Origins and nine of the last 10 have all topped 28 points.
– Three of the last four dead rubbers have hit 40 or more points.
– Nine of the last 11 clashes at Suncorp have topped 28 points.
– There have been only three field goals kicked in the last 29 Origins.
– Queensland have just one player who has won an Origin Man of the Match award while NSW have two.
– Wingers scored 7 of Queensland’s 8 tries in 2017 and 4 of 5 in the 2018 series opener.
– Forwards scored just 3 of the 20 tries since the start of last series.
– This is the first time Queensland have started as an underdog at Suncorp since 2006.

NRL Betting Stats

Final Thoughts
The Wolf is sticking with the home side to avoid the clean sweep and get the job done on Wednesday night. Home underdogs have covered 4 of the last 5 Origins, while Queensland is simply a different beast when playing at Suncorp Stadium. The loss of Ponga and Inglis is a blow, but Oates, Cherry Evans and Glasby are solid replacements and will take great pride in the jersey. The +3.5 looks a nice start for a team that is playing with a chip on its shoulder.

How It Shapes Up
Queensland by 4

Recommended Bets
Best: Queensland +3.5 ($1.91)
Value: Queensland 1-12 ($3.40)
First Try: Corey Oates ($11)
Man of the Match: Cameron Munster ($10)