Welcome to The Pie Shop, where for each week of the NRL season, Tony ‘Swampy’ McCreath will be serving up juicy anytime pie scorers, corner pies, under the post pies, value pies, first pies and the house special – succulent double pies. Grab the tomato sauce and dig in!
For more State of Origin Game 3 best bets, check out The Wolf’s NRL tips.
Queensland v New South Wales
The final game of Rugby League is upon us and we’re coming off a handy profit tipping the overs as well as Cody Walker and Josh Papalii in Game 2 at $3+ and $7+ respectively.
Once again I’m shying away from the match betting but have a small lean to the plus and overs and wait up until the jump if you do as I suspect late money will continue to come for NSW.
Anytime Try Scorer tips
Starting with the Pie Shop, we missed out on seeing the brilliance of Cameron Munster in Game II after an early head knock ruled him out for the match. Whilst that undoubtedly crippled QLD, there’s every chance it helped Munster’s body recover and focus on match fitness in training. I mentioned last week that in Game 1 he started to run the footy more and had the intention of taking the line on more in Game II. With the series now on the line it’s time Munster steps up and running the footy will be at the front of his mind. At $5, he’s a great bet to take the line on and beat some would-be tacklers down the left channel. For the same reasons, I’ll be taking him in the MOM betting. I firmly believe if QLD are to cause one of the great series upsets, it will be on the back of some Munster magic.
Here’s some value for you, Harry Grant 2nd Half meat pie at $10. I’ve been calling for Harry to not only get picked but play the full 80 minutes all series. This kid is that good he single-handedly carried the Tigers in games this year and that was on a loan contract! Sadly, Bennett seems to like the defensive edge Jake Friend brings. It’s for this reason that there is the uncertainty of how much time Grant will get but I’m hoping he gets more than a cameo 20 minutes. If Wayne brings him on late in the 1st half, I believe he can spark the attack and do enough to keep Friendy on the pine. If this happens, watch for Grant to work over the tired middle forwards around the ruck and take a dart at the chalk from dummy half. There’s a lot of “ifs” going on here, but at $10, we’re getting a great price to find out.
For the cockroaches, I’m going back to the well on Angus Crichton. He played out of his skin last week and I’m happy to go around again at $4.50. If you are after a shorty, Teddy at even-money just seems to always threaten in the sky-blue jumper. There really isn’t a bad price.
Man of the Match tips
For the Man of the Match award I’ve already mentioned Cam Munster who I’ll be on at $9 and I really don’t envision anyone else winning it for QLD. Corey Allan is a sniff at 20s likely playing fullback but would prefer $23-$26. Harry Grant is criminal odds at $23 and I would love to be on him at 40s or better.
Last week it was looking sexy with Cody Walker and James Tedesco lighting it up and dominating the in-play betting of best on ground before Nathan Cleary took the match over with a strong kicking game and eventually won the award. Teddy has been a standout in both games and a good chance to win the man of the series award. I can’t let him go around without me, so I’ll swoop up the $5.50 once again and Walker has drifted from $7 last week to $9 this week after a brilliant game. There’s literally no reason to look elsewhere. Stick to the good areas Swamp nation. Give them strength.
That my good friends and followers is all this Baker has left to cook. It’s been a hell of a season for the Pie Shop with plenty of meat pies and chicken dinners. I’m off to the paddock for a spell and I’ll be back bigger and better next season.