There are plenty of strong totals to bet this Sunday as the NFL season enters its second month. Here are The Wolf’s best bets for Week 5 Sunday action.
The first London game takes place on Sunday with the Jets three point dogs to the Falcons. Happy to take experience here in this unusual situation with the Jets being led by rookie QB Zach Wilson. Rookie QBs against non-rookies are 4-8 against the spread while the Jets have covered just two of nine against losing teams. The Falcons have covered eight of 11 against teams with a losing record.
Tip: Atlanta -3
SGM: Elijah Moore TD/Cordarrelle Patterson TD ($13.50)
There is plenty of hope here that Teddy Bridgewater will play in this one with Bridgewater 38-13-1 against the spread as a starter. The Broncos have covered eight straight after being held to 15 or fewer and have covered four of five off a loss. Pittsburgh are living off their franchise legacy but they are a bad team who have failed to cover six straight as a favourite and just one of six at home.
Tips: Denver +1.5
SGM: Denver/Under 36.5 Alternate Total ($4.33)
This NFC North matchup has all the hallmarks of a shootout with both teams possessing a capable offense and a diabolical defence ravaged by injury. The over is 48-22 after Detroit have been held to 15 or fewer while it is 14-5 when they play on turf and 6-2 when they are an underdog. The over is 10-1 when Minnesota are off a loss, 7-1 when they play a team with a losing record and 6-1 when they are a home favourite.
Tip: Over 49.5
SGM: Justin Jefferson TD/Adam Thielen TD/Quintez Cephus TD ($11.50)
The total has been creeping northwards but this battle between the Packers and Bengals. There are under angles both ways here though. The under is 8-3 when the Bengals are an underdog and most notably, 5-1 when they are off a win. The Packers are typically an over team but that flips when they are favoured on the road, the under being 5-2 in that spot.
Tip: Under 51.5
SGM: Tyler Boyd TD/Randall Cobb Over 35.5 Rec Yards ($5.00)
The most undervalued team in the NFL is Miami so more than happy to stick with them against one of the most overvalued in Tampa Bay. The Dolphins have covered 22 of 32 games overall including 18 of 24 as an underdog. They are 13-5 against the number on grass and 7-1 against the spread off a loss. The Bucs are an awful 8-19 against the spread when favoured at home.
Tip: Miami +10
SGM: Tom Brady Over 1.5 Rush Yards/Tom Brady TD ($9.00)
This game looks set to start with the lowest total of the season so far and even that does not seem low enough. The Texans are really going to struggle to score anything against a very good Pats defence that really contained the Bucs last week. The under is 21-7 when the Pats are off a loss and 20-8 when they are a road favourite. The under is 22-8 when Houston are off scoring less than 15 and is 7-3 when they are an underdog.
Tip: Under 39.5
SGM: Davis Mills Under 232.5 Pass Yards/Kendrick Bourne TD ($6.00)
The Saints are a highly reliable proposition on the road and against a Washington team that has seriously added to its injury list this week, they are again a good play laying less than a field goal. The Saints are 38-17 against the spread on the road and have covered a remarkable 16 of 23 as a road favourite. Washington have covered just two of their last seven as a favourite.
Tip: New Orleans -2.5
SGM: New Orleans 14+/Under 47.5 ($7.50)
Christian McCaffery looks like he will make a return for Carolina this week and that will be welcome news for the Panthers who will be expecting to win this game. The Panthers are a good bounceback team, covering four of five off allowing 30-plus points and five straight off a non-cover. Philadelphia have covered just one of their last eight on the road and just one of 12 off a double digit home loss.
Tip: Carolina -3.5
SGM: Sam Darnold TD/Sam Darnold Over 18.5 Rush Yards ($5.75)
Since Ryan Tannehill moved to Tennessee, Titans games have tended to go over the total. The over is 15-6 when the Titans are favoured, 9-2 when they play a team with a losing record and 6-2 when they play in their division. In their last 34, the over has hit 25 times. The over is 7-3 when the Jags play an AFC South opponent and it is clear Urban Meyer hasn’t devoted the entire week to prepare for this game.
Tip: Over 48.5
SGM: Tennessee 14+/Over 48.5 ($6.00)
The Raiders are at home on the quick backup and will be all eyes after a disappointing showing against the Chargers last week. Derek Carr will be keen to fire up an offense that looked good the first three weeks so expecting points here. The over is 13-6 when the Raiders are a home favourite and has hit in five straight Raiders games off a loss. The Bears are 4-1 over when they play off a win.
Tip: Over 44.5
SGM: Derek Carr Over 277.5 Pass Yards/Damien Williams Over 60.5 Rush Yards ($3.60)
The Chargers look to be legitimate title contenders this year so love the fact they are not even laying a field goal at home to an overrated Browns team. The Chargers have covered seven of their last eight and have covered four of five off a win. The Browns have covered just 10 of their last 39 against teams with a winning record and just three of 12 after conceding 15 or fewer.
Tip: LA Chargers -2
SGM: Austin Ekeler Over 54.5 Rush Yards/Keenan Allen Over 73.5 Rec Yards ($3.50)
This is absolutely the time to be jumping all over the Giants. They are 22-6 against the number as a road underdog and have covered 20 of their last 26 on the road full stop. They have covered five straight division games. Dallas have covered just four of their last 14 when favoured and two of their last 10 after posting a score of 30-plus points. This game should be close.
Tip: NY Giants +7
SGM: Daniel Jones TD/Dalton Schultz TD ($13.00)
A cracking NFC West divisional game wraps up the afternoon slate with the Niners traveling to Arizona to meet the unbeaten Cards. The Niners present as value here. They have covered 10 of their last 14 as an underdog and four of their last five in the division. Arizona are very poor home favourites, covering just seven of 27 in the spot. They have covered just one of their last five division games.
Tip: San Francisco +5
SGM: San Francisco/Deebo Samuel TD ($5.00)