Defending Super Bowl champions Tampa Bay travel to Philadelphia and are heavily favoured but the Eagles look to be in a good spot to push Tom Brady and the Bucs.
The Eagles getting a touchdown at home look a clear play this week against a Tampa Bay team forced to play a ramshackle secondary. The path to victory for Philadelphia is through the air but if they are happy to air it out then they can get the win or at the very least, the cover. Home underdogs of seven or more points are 40-21 against the spread over the last 25 seasons. The Eagles have covered four straight at home and five of seven as a home dog. The Bucs have covered just one of five as a road favourite. The line here is far too big.
Tampa Bay are a big overs team and the over just needs to be bet in this one with their depleted secondary and the likely game script of them needing to chase a total. The over is a quality 10-1 when the Bucs are off a win of 14-plus, 22-6 when they play in conference, 21-7 when they play a team with a losing record and 27-11 when they play on the road.
Jalen Reagor has just one TD this year but projects to have a big game against a Tampa Bay team is missing a lot of defensive backs. In four of five games this year Reagor has at least five targets. He is a positive regression candidate.
SAME GAME MULTI
Devonta Smith Over 73.5 Rec Yards/Antonio Brown Over 61.5 Rec Yards/Leonard Fournette Over 26.5 Rec Yards ($6.75)
Smith has yardage totals of 122 and 77 the last two weeks so should be able to take advantage of the decimated TB secondary. Antonio Brown has 120-plus yard in two of his three full games this season. Fournette has at least three catches and 24 receiving yards in every game this season.