Buffalo know that for their AFC Championship aspirations to come to fruition, they will likely have to knock off Kansas City. The Bills get their chance to stamp their authority on the conference here and The Wolf thinks they can.
Sunday Night Football does not get more enticing than this with two of the premier teams in the AFC squaring off as Buffalo travel to Kansas City. The Bills look like an outstanding play getting a field goal here. Buffalo have covered 12 of their last 15 and 10 of their last 13 off a win. They are 9-2 against the spread as a road underdog and 9-1 against the number off scoring 30-plus points. Kansas City are at the opposite end of the spectrum, incredibly overrated by the market. The Chiefs have covered three of their last 15 including just one of their last seven as a home favourite.
The total in this one is about as high as it gets but every indicator suggests a shootout between two high-powered offenses. The Chiefs have the premier offense in the NFL and the over is 4-1 over when they are coming off a win. The over is 14-5 when the Bills are off a win, 7-1 when they play on grass and has hit in five straight when Buffalo are underdogs.
Buffalo TE Dawson Knox has scored four touchdowns in his last three games and has seen his target share go up in each of the last three weeks. His role is significant and steady, particularly in the redzone. Looks a good play.
SAME GAME MULTI
Tyreek Hill TD/Travis Kelce TD/Stefon Diggs TD ($5.50)
Combining the three most likely TD scorers in a high-scoring shootout. Hill comes off a three TD showing last week and has four for the year. Kelce has three TDs this season. Diggs has double digit targets in three of four games this year so his TD equity is high even with only one score this year.