After a much shorter awards season than usual, Hollywood’s night of nights is already here! Let’s take a look at the 92nd Annual Academy Awards.
|Best Picture||Parasite ($4.25), Jojo Rabbit ($41)|
|Best Bet||Best Adapted Screenplay: Jojo Rabbit ($1.42)|
|Next Best||Best Production Design: 1917 ($3.00)|
|Value Bet||Build-A-Bet: Scarlett Johansson to win an Oscar ($6.25)|
This year’s race for Best Picture looks to be a three movie race between Sam Mendes’ epic World War One film ‘1917’, Bong Joon-Ho’s genre-less ‘Parasite’ and Quentin Tarantino’s 9th film ‘Once Upon a Time In Hollywood’. After a strong showings early in the season, the light is dimming on both The Irishman & Marriage Story. The Netflix duo have both drifted out to $81 & $126 respectively. Joker led all films with 11 nominations and is still in the mix at $12 on the back of Joaquin Phoenix tour-de-force as Arthur Fleck ($1.03 for Best Actor).
1917 is the short priced favourite at $1.50 after adding seven BAFTA awards (including Best Film) to an already impressive awards season haul of the Golden Globe for Best Drama, the Producers Guild Award and the Directors Guild Award. 10 of the last 12 Best Picture winners took home the Producers Guild Award which puts 1917 in a very comfortable position. So why fade 1917 at the $1.44? Well, 1917 would be the first film in Oscars history to win Best Picture without either an Editing or Acting Nomination (two of the biggest branches of The Academy).
The Palm D’or winner Parasite looks to be the best bet of the field at $4.25 as it looks to go one better than Roma did last year (many believe Roma finished 2nd) by being the first Foreign Language Film to ever win Best Picture. The difference between Roma & Parasite is the adoration from the Acting Branch as Parasite triumphed to win the SAG Ensemble award. Until the last two years, every best picture winner was nominated for that award. While Parasite hasn’t got the insane amount of silverware like 1917, the film has performed spectacular well at the box office & Bong Joon-Ho has been the talk of tinsel town for months.
The Buzz is betting against 1917 and taking Parasite but is also very weary of Jojo Rabbit who is flying under the radar.
Recommended Bets: Parasite ($4.25), Jojo Rabbit ($41)
Best Adapted Screenplay
For a long time, many thought Steve Zaillian was gonna take home his second Oscar for The Irishman (he previously won for Schindler’s List) here but both the Critics Choice Award & USC Scripter went to Greta Gerwig for Little Women. The momentum had shifted and many thought Gerwig was going to finally win her first Academy Award and then within 24 hours Taika Waititi took over winning both the Writer’s Guild Award and the BAFTA. No Adapted Screenplay has won both the Writer’s Guild Award & BAFTA and then lost the Academy Award over the past ten years. It’s the Kiwi’s to lose and bring on the Taika Waititi Oscar Speech.
Recommended Bet: Jojo Rabbit ($1.42)
Best Production Design
The top 3 contenders for this category also happen to be the top 3 in the betting for Best Picture. So the winner of this category could very well foreshadow the bigger picture. Both Once Upon a Time in Hollywood ($1.62) & Parasite ($5) won major awards last week at the Art Directors Guild but it was 1917 who got the most recent win over them both at the BAFTA Awards. The unique way that 1917 was filmed has been labelled a masterpiece and being celebrated by many in the industry as a massive technical achievement. A lot of its success starts and ends with the production design. A Parasite win wouldn’t surprise here (they did build that entire set from scratch) but 1917 should clean up in just about every technical category and $3 is tremendous value.
Recommended Bet: 1917 ($3.00)
Last year’s biggest Oscar surprise wasn’t Green Book winning Best Picture, it was Olivia Colman ($10) upsetting Glenn Close ($1.04) for Best Actress. The dagger for Close was her film ‘The Wife’ wasn’t nominated for any other award while Colman’s film ‘The Favourite’ had a staggering 10 nominations, meaning more members watched & saw Colman’s performance. This year we have a very similar set of circumstances with Renee Zellweger the $1.04 Best Actress Favourite in a very mediocre movie called Judy which only has 2 nominations. Zellweger is going up against Scarlett Johansson (Marriage Story & Jojo Rabbit) who is only the 12th Actor in history to be double nominated in the same year. More Academy members will have seen Scar-Jo delivering great performances and The Buzz thinks she’s a good chance to upset Renee Zellweger at the $10 but will take the $6.25 on offer here via Build-A-Bet in case the upset victory is over Laura Dern ($1.04) in Best Supporting Actress instead.
Recommended Bet: Scarlett Johansson to Win an Oscar ($6.25)
More Oscars Tips
|Best Animated Feature||Toy Story 4 ($1.83)|
|Best Picture Double Chance||Parasite or Jojo Rabbit ($3.60)|
|Best Picture Match-Up||The Field ($2.50) vs 1917|
|Best Sound Mixing & Editing: 1917 vs The Field||1917 to win Both ($1.91)|
|Best Live Action Short Film||The Neighbor’s Window ($2.50)|
|Best Documentary||Honeyland ($6.00)|
|1917: No. of Academy Awards Won||7 Academy Awards ($3.00)|