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The Sacramento Kings are ranked last in the NBA for defence and The Wolf expects Terry Rozier to be the beneficiary of it and put up some big numbers for the Hornets on Monday.

Best Bet

The Houston Rockets made it pretty clear that they’re keen to revert back to small-ball, making Boogie Cousins available for trade and sitting the big out.

It’s now been three games with PJ Tucker back into his undersized centre role and as a result bigs are absolutely feasting on the Rockets. The Wolf’s expecting a similar outcome when the Grizzlies face them on Monday.

In those last three games, centres are scoring points at 8% above NBA average, but rebounding a whopping 39% above NBA average!

Jonas Valanciunas is top-ten in the NBA for rebounds per game this season, averaging 11.4 per game but over the last month he’s ranked fifth averaging 12.3 per game. The big Lithuanian to go to town on Houston like bigs have in the last three games:

  • Wendell Carter 18 points & 13 rebounds (averages 12.7 points and 7.7 rebounds)
  • Jarrett Allen 26 points & 18 rebounds (averages 13.5 points and 9.5 rebounds)
  • Aron Baynes 9 points & 6 rebounds (averages 5.9 points and 5.4 rebounds)

Last season JV had 16 points and 10 rebounds against the small-ball Rockets, but the Grizzlies were blown out so he only played the 22 minutes. In the last 12 games since returning from coronavirus though, JV averages 29 minutes per game and has cleared the 31.5 PR in four of his last 8 games.

The Sacramento game is a good guide for this contest with Houston, being the 6th easiest team for centres to score against over the last month and the 7th easiest team for bigs to rebound against – Eight games back when JV faced the Kings he had 25 points and 13 rebounds.

The Wolf’s backing a monster performance from Valanciunas against PJ Tucker, clearing the 31.5 PR with ease.

Jonas Valanciunas

Over 31.5 PR

Value Bet

Scary Terry has been on a tear over the last three weeks ranked 21st in the NBA in scoring over that period with 25.7 points per game. He gets a great look at the Sacramento Kings on Monday who are currently ranked the NBA’s worst defence.

The Kings are the only team in the NBA to give up 120+ points per game and ranked last over the last 9 games conceding 125 per game.

From Rozier’s last seven games he managed 30+ on four consecutive occasions including 41 against the Timberwolves – but came crashing down to earth recently.

The Utah Jazz did a number of Rozier coming off 36 against the Warriors, keeping him to just 12 points from 11 shots – after all they are the best team in the NBA over the last month at guarding the shooting guard spot. It didn’t get any easier against the Phoenix Suns with just 10 points from 11 shots – but they’re the second best in the NBA over the last month at defending shooting guards.

He bounced back in his last game against Golden State to finish with 24 points, thanks to going big in the last quarter. Now Rozier has his confidence back though, he could once again go big against this shocking Kings’ D who are giving up points to shooting guards 9% above average over the last month.

Good value on offer for both 25+ and 30+ at $5 for Scary Terry.

Terry Rozier

25+ Points

Multi

Jonas Valanciunas Over 31.5 PR / Terry Rozier Over 22.5 Points / Devin Booker 25+ Points = $5.99

NBA Same Game Multi Tips

Kawhi Leonard Over 27.5 Points / Nicolas Batum Under 7.5 Points / Paul George 4+ Assists = $4.33

Raptors win / Fred VanVleet Under 21.5 Points / Coby White 4+ Rebounds = $4.50

Bradley Beal Under 32.5 Points / Russell Westbrook Under 22.5 Points / Bradley Beal 4+ Assists = $5.00

Grizzlies Win / Jonas Valanciunas Over 14.5 Rebounds / Ja Morant Over 3.5 Rebounds = $6.25

Dennis Smith Jr Over 12.5 Points / Saddiq Bay Over 12.5 Points / Mason Plumlee 4+ Assists = $5.50

Lakers (-3.5) / Under 224.5 Points / Lakers-Lakers Double Result = $4.33

Suns Win / Devin Booker Over 26.5 Points / Karl-Anthony Towns Under 26.5 Points = $4.20

Terry Rozier Over 22.5 Points / LaMelo Ball Under 6.5 Rebounds / De’Aaron Fox 8+ Assists = $5.00