Nine games of NBA basketball on Saturday and The Wolf is expecting Portland’s Damian Lillard to have another big assist game when the Trail Blazers face the Lakers.
The Wolf is a big fan of Domantas Sabonis and feels the Lithuanian was snubbed of an All Star spot this season (Edit: He’s now an All Star – in for KD), but I’m not liking this match-up against the Celtics.
The Pacers have played the Celtics twice this year already, and although Sabonis averages 21.5 points per game this season he failed to score 20+ on both occasions against the Celtics with 19 and 14 points from the two games.
A key reason for this is how Boston defend the power forward spot this season with the size of Theis interchanged with the versatility of Tatum. As a result, they’re the sixth most difficult team in the NBA for the 4-spot to score against over the last month, 7% below average.
The Wolf took Sabonis to have 20+ against the Warriors which he did but expected a much bigger output with 25+ points. Aside from the second quarter where Sabonis had 15 points, he only managed 7 points in the other three quarters – as a result going under the 22.5 point line against a nice match-up in Golden State.
Both teams are struggling of late so we can expect a low-scoring contest between these two, and I’m not expecting Sabonis to hit 20+ points against the Celtics defence.
Damian Lillard has never been a huge assists guy, but his assist numbers of late have been some of the best in the NBA.
Dame averages 11.1 assists over the seven games, ranked third in the NBA behind Harden and Westbrook over the last two weeks.
He’s recorded double figures in five of his last six games and cleared the 8.5 line in six of his last seven.
The look against the Lakers is a good one – they do a great job restricting points to point guards, who score 4% below average over the last month against LeBron’s men, but the assists go right up as a result. Over the last month, the Lakers are the second easiest team in the NBA for point guards to produce assists against, 12% above average.
Frank Vogel will go to all lengths to secure a win for the Lakers entering this with four straight losses, so expect them to send a double to Lillard like they did in the post-season last year – this should result in a big assist game for Dame.
The Wolf’s keen on the $2.30 on offer for Lillard to produce double-digit dimes, but the way the Lakers are travelling at the minute the Player Performance Double of Portland win into Lillard double-double at $6.50 is worth a play.
Domantas Sabonis Under 22.5 Points / Damian Lillard Over 8.5 Assists / Raptors Win / Gordon Hayward 4+ Rebounds = $5.63
NBA Same Game Multi Tips
Raptors (-7.5) / OG Anunoby Over 5.5 Rebounds / Pascal Siakam 8+ Rebounds = $5.25
Under 218.5 Points / Domantas Sabonis Under 22.5 Points / Malcolm Brogdon 4+ Rebounds = $4.33
Under 228.5 Points / Wendell Carter Over 12.5 Points / Devin Booker 1+ Three = $4.20
John Collins Under 18.5 Points / Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Under 6.5 Rebounds / Trae Young 8+ Assists = $4.20
Kings (-1.5) / Over 224.5 Points / Kings-Kings Double Result = $5.00
Jazz Win / Bojan Bogdanovic 15+ Points / Rudy Gobert Over 13.5 Points = $4.33
Hornets (+6.5) / Kelly Oubre 15+ Points / Gordon Hayward Over 5.5 Rebounds = $5.25
Damian Lillard 10+ Assists / Enes Kanter Under 12.5 Rebounds / Robert Covington 6+ Rebounds = $6.50