Round 8 saw six of our nine best bets salute along with the $6.53 multi for the round. The Wolf loves the recent form of the Brisbane Lions who won’t have any trouble in the Q-Clash, while the high-scoring Bulldogs may struggle when they head to Adelaide Oval to face the Power.
Here are The Wolf’s AFL tips for Round 9.
Lions (-20.5) / Cats / Swans v Pies Under 170.5 Total Points / Eagles 25+ = $7.05
Cameron’s Cats To Smack Saints
Geelong have had no issues with the Saints in recent times and coming off a thumping of the reigning premiers the line of 15.5 here appears extremely short.
The Cats have won the last four against St Kilda by an average margin of 42.8 points with their lowest margin 27 points – they covered the line in three of those four wins.
St Kilda has only won once from their last 12 meetings against Geelong and they get them at a really bad time with star recruit Jeremy Cameron starting to fire in the Cats’ forward line. The Cats average 116.7 points with Cameron up forward ranking them #1 in the competition for points scored over the last three rounds.
The Saints have tightened up down back in the last two weeks but these two wins came against the Suns and Hawks who are ranked 16th and 17th respectively for points scored this season – this is the real test to see how their backline holds up.
This line looks far too short here and a 40+ result for Geelong wouldn’t surprise.
Same Game Multi: Geelong (-15.5) / Tom Stewart 25+ Disposals / Jeremy Cameron 3+ Goals = $4.50
Stingy Swans Return
Remember back in Round 3 when we were raving about the high-scoring, free-flowing Swans? Well, they’re back to the ugly Swans, ranked 14th in the competition for points scored in the last five rounds at just 72 per game.
Sydney host Collingwood who are ranked slightly ahead of them for points since Round 3 in 13th spot, but for the season the Pies are ranked 15th averaging just 75.1 points per game.
If that wasn’t a strong enough sign that this clash will go unders on Saturday, these two teams notoriously play in low-scoring games. Ten of the last eleven between Sydney and Collingwood have gone unders including the last four which were tight contests – the margin less than 10 points in all four games.
Four of the last five Swans games this season have gone unders, with their average total points at 153.2 – a fair way off the current total points line set at 170.5. The stingy Swans of old are back, and it’s hard to see a big score kicked in this by either team.
Same Game Multi: Under 170.5 Points / Collingwood (+20.5) / Luke Parker 25+ Disposals = $4.75
Is it Now For North?
Despite a 0-8 record, North Melbourne has started games reasonably well this season with their fadeouts generally occurring in the second and fourth quarters. They have a 3-5 first quarter record and they come up against the worst first half team in the AFL this season in Hawthorn.
Both North Melbourne and Hawthorn have only led once at half time this season, with the first half points differential across eight games at -22.8 for the Kangaroos and -23.1 for the Hawks. Incredibly, the only time both teams have led at half time was against the undefeated Demons.
The Kangaroos have covered the line in three of their last four games against the Hawks and if Jaeger O’Meara doesn’t return to the Hawks midfield, The Wolf considers North Melbourne a genuine chance to record their first win of the season, despite their own injury woes.
But due to the unpredictability of both teams, The Wolf’s not keen to take the result in this. Instead, he’s backing the Roos to remain competitive in the first half in Launceston.
Same Game Multi: Tom Mitchell 35+ Disposals / Tom Powell 20+ Disposals / Tom Campbell Any Time Goal Scorer = $5.25
The Lions have had a complete stranglehold on the Q-Clash winning six of the last seven including the last four and they’re in the box seat for another convincing victory.
Brisbane’s average winning margin from the last four games against the Suns is 47.3 points, winning by 40+ in the last three games. They’ve also covered the line in seven of their last nine games against the Gold Coast.
It was a shaky start to the 2021 season for the Lions but they’ve been impressive in their last five games, ranked fourth in the competition for points scored since Round 3 averaging 89.4 and ranking third for points conceded at just 63.6 – not far behind the Power and Demons.
This spells trouble for the Suns who have had big problems being able to kick a score this season, ranked 17th in the competition since Round 3 for points scored at just 69.6 per game and failing to score 60 points in half their games so far in 2021. They’ll also be without their best player this season in Touk Miller.
Brisbane should have no trouble covering the line currently set at 21.5 and a 40+ margin not out of the question currently paying $3.20.
Same Game Multi: Lions (-20.5) / Daniel Rich 25+ Disposals / High McCluggage 25+ Disposals / Charlie Cameron 2+ Goals = $4.33
No Bolton, no Cotchin, no Edwards, no Lambert, no Prestia. There’s a gaping hole in the Tigers midfield and with a limited supply of ball going forward The Wolf can’t see Richmond being able to reverse their scoring woes.
The Tigers are ranked 10th in the competition for points this season averaging 81.8 per game but the last three weeks is a massive concern averaging just 62.7 – the only team worse off being the Crows. They face a Giants team that they’ve played in some low-scoring contests against in recent times with eight of the last 11 between these two teams going unders.
Richmond’s points average is inflated this season with 100+ scores against the Blues and Saints but both of those sides are ranked in the bottom six in the competition for points conceded. From the six other games Richmond has played this season, they’ve failed to score 80+ points.
The Giants are a decent defensive unit – they’re ranked eighth in the competition for points against this season and will certainly take advantage of a depleted Richmond midfield through the likes of Taranto, Hopper, Kelly and Ward.
Richmond has won just two of their last five at Marvel, averaging 83.6 points – this includes scoring 134 points against the Saints in Round 5. With their points line currently set at 86.5, it’s hard to see them clearing this line.
Same Game Multi: Tim Taranto 25+ Disposals / Jacob Hopper 25+ Disposals / Lachie Ash 20+ Disposals / Tom Green 20+ Disposals = $4.50
Ultimate test for Dogs
It’s hard to question the Bulldogs 7-1 start to 2021 but they haven’t set the world on fire away from Marvel Stadium this season and it will be their undoing against a Port Adelaide outfit that has won 10 of their last 11 at Adelaide Oval.
The Western Bulldogs are 3-1 away from Marvel Stadium this season, but they only average 75.3 points, including scoring 104 against the Giants in Canberra but that required a nine-goal last quarter.
In their nine trips to Adelaide Oval, the Dogs have only scored over 76 points on one occasion, with a low-scoring grind falling straight into the hands of Port Adelaide here. Their last three contests with the Bulldogs have gone unders with an average total points of just 105.3 and 12 of the last 13 night games the Power have played in at Adelaide Oval have gone under the line as well.
Port Adelaide has won four of the last five against the Western Bulldogs and their ability to limit the Bulldogs scoring should see them clear the low line of 7.5.
There’s been a few alarm bells for the Western Bulldogs the last three weeks – Port Adelaide at Adelaide Oval is potentially football’s ultimate test at the moment and one The Wolf doesn’t see them passing.
Same Game Multi: Port Adelaide win / Ryan Burton 20+ Disposals / Charlie Dixon 2+ Goals = $4.20
Sunday Slog at Marvel
The Bombers have won five of the last six against Fremantle, including the last four, but it’s the Dockers that have managed to cover the line in seven of the last eight contests. Expect a tight one on Sunday!
Essendon have embraced the shootout, currently ranked 17th in the competition for points conceded giving up 97.4 per game and second in the competition for points scored averaging 93.1 per game.
As for the Dockers, they’ve been rather disappointing, especially away from home in 2021. They weren’t a high-scoring team last year and that hasn’t changed this year, ranked 13th for points scored and one of two teams in the AFL that are yet to crack the ton in a game. But it’s their defence that has fallen right away – last year they did a good job at restricting the opposition, but they’re currently ranked 10th for points conceded.
Fremantle is 1-3 on the road this season, all three losses by 20+ points with their only win by 12 points to the Crows – based on Adelaide’s recent form this is rather underwhelming.
Although the Dockers have covered the line in seven of the last eight against Essendon, The Wolf isn’t willing to take the 5.5 head start and is much more comfortable taking the Bombers 1-39 in this.
Same Game Multi: Darcy Parish 25+ Disposals / Nat Fyfe 25+ Disposals / Anthony McDonald-Tipungwuti 2+ Goals / Matt Taberner 3+ Goals = $5.75
Leaky Blues Lose
The Blues covered the line last week against the Western Bulldogs and with a similar line against the Demons this round, The Wolf thinks they’ll do it once again.
Melbourne has won the last five against Carlton with three of the last four decided by less than 10 points but the Blues clearly play reasonably well against the Demons covering the line in six of the last seven games they’ve met.
Carlton have managed to keep their losses small in 2021, with their greatest losing margin just 28 points from their five losses, but the question beckons can Carlton possibly get past the Demons based on how many points they concede?
In five of the last six the Blues have played at the MCG they’ve conceded 95+ points and if that happens again you can already pencil in an ‘L’.
Carlton will make a game of this and could potentially inflict Melbourne their first loss of the season but the likely outcome is a close win for the Dees.
Same Game Multi: Carlton (+23.5) / Christian Petracca 25+ Disposals / Lachlan Fogarty Any Time Goal Scorer = $5.50
The Eagles may be depleted with injuries, but it hasn’t slowed them down from hitting the scoreboard. West Coast is ranked third in the AFL for points scored averaging 92.3 per game – this includes 39 against the Cats in Round 6.
West Coast has scored 100+ on three occasions this season and 80+ in seven of their eight games and come up against an Adelaide team that are leaking points.
The Crows are ranked 14th in the competition for points conceded giving up 93 points per game with seven of their eight games resulting in their opponent scoring 84 points or more.
At Optus Stadium West Coast are simply dominant – they’ve won 12 of the last 13 there and in 2021 they’re 4-0 averaging 106.5 points and an average winning margin of 37 points.
They’ve won five of the last six against the Crows and based on what we’ve seen from Adelaide over the last ten quarters this could get ugly. The Wolf expects the Eagles to kick close to 20 goals in this, clearing their points line of 104.5.
Same Game Multi: Tim Kelly 25+ Disposals / Jack Darling 2+ Goals / Jake Waterman 2+ Goals = $4.75