Port Adelaide has hit their straps at the right time of the season while the Bulldogs look banged up from their Semi Final with the Lions. The Power will be too strong at Adelaide Oval.
The Power has peaked at the right time of the season and are deserved favourites when they host the Western Bulldogs on Saturday night.
Port Adelaide has won 5 of the last 7 games against the Western Bulldogs, including their Round 23 clash where they dominated after quarter time.
The Western Bulldogs enter this coming off a physical encounter against the Lions, and as a result they’ll be without Cody Weightman. And although Marcus Bontempelli has been cleared of any damage, there’s no doubt he’ll enter this Preliminary Final banged up. He is absolutely critical to their chances here.
In their Round 23 clash, the Western Bulldogs’ handball game was well controlled by the Power, only managing 334 disposals – their lowest total of the season.
Led by Scott Lycett in ruck, expect the Power to be too strong in clearances which is perfect for their army of deadly small forwards. They’ll be too strong for a banged-up Bulldogs at Adelaide Oval.
Four of the last five games between the Bulldogs and Power have gone under the total points line, and The Wolf’s expecting the same in this Preliminary Final.
In Round 23 the total score came to 130 at Marvel Stadium, with the Bulldogs last four games going under the total points line, all totaling less than the 157.5 points line set for this game.
As for the Power, eight of their last 11 games has gone under the 157.5 total points line with four of their last five games at Adelaide Oval going unders.
In their last eight games, the average total points in the Western Bulldogs games has been 146.3 while Port Adelaide is even less than that at 145.6.
With the heat on in a Preliminary Final, the 157.5 total points line appears far too high for these two teams.
It’s been another ridiculously consistent season for Travis Boak, and he enters Saturday Night’s game playing at the peak of his powers.
Boak has recorded 30+ disposals in his last three games including the Round 23 clash with the Western Bulldogs. By doing so, he recorded 30+ disposals in both games against the Bulldogs this season, after also having 30 in their Round 9 clash.
Josh Dunkley has played a bit of a defensive midfielder role of late, and if that happens here he should go to Brownlow favourite Ollie Wines. We could see another big game from Travis Boak with another 30+ disposal effort on the cards.
SAME GAME MULTI
Travis Boak 25+ Disposals / Karl Amon 20+ Disposals / Bailey Dale 20+ Disposals / Peter Ladhams Any Time Goal Scorer = $4.20
As mentioned in the value bet, Travis Boak is flying and has had 25+ disposals in 91% of games this season. Karl Amon has also impressed this season, and although he only recorded 19 last time he played the Bulldogs, he should bounce back recording 20+ touches in 78% of games this season. Bailey Dale has had 20+ disposals in 83% of his games this season and averages 24 disposals per game against the Power. Peter Ladhams will spend most of his time up forward, and over the last five weeks he averages 1.4 goals per game – only behind Fantasia and Dixon for the Power. The big man has kicked a goal in five of his last six games, including two in Round 23.