Brisbane’s high scoring ways were heavily restricted in Week 1 of the Finals, but back at the Gabba the Lions’ small forwards will have a major impact against the Bulldogs.

BEST BET

Over 165.5 Points

Total Game Points

The Bulldogs and Lions have played in plenty of high-scoring contests across the journey, with 11 of their last 14 going over the total points.

The Wolf expected Brisbane’s offensive potency to take a hit against the strong Melbourne backline, but their high-scoring ways will return on Saturday. The Lions averaged 96.9 points per game during the season, and although Daniel McStay will be missing The Wolf expects their small forwards to have a major impact.

At the Gabba this season seven of Brisbane’s ten games have gone over the total points, with the Lions averaging 109.6 points at their home ground – their lowest score, 93 points.

A high-scoring Semi Final at the Gabba is on the cards.

NEXT BEST

Brisbane (-8.5)

Line

The Lions have covered the line in five of their last seven games against the Bulldogs, and with this being played at the Gabba, The Wolf is backing them to do so once again.

Brisbane’s Gabba record is dominant winning their last nine there and covering the line in seven of those wins.

There were plenty of opportunities for Essendon’s small forwards inside 50 against the Bulldogs on Sunday, but they struggled at ground level – this won’t be the case for the Lions though. Charlie Cameron, Lincoln McCarthy, Zac Bailey and Nakia Cockatoo will cause plenty of headaches for the Bulldogs back-six.

If Brisbane can halve the midfield battle, they’ll be too strong covering the line of -8.5.

BEST VALUE

Jarrod Berry

Any Time Goal Scorer

With no Daniel McStay, this could be a role Jarrod Berry fills for the Lions up forward.

Probably better suited to a defensive role, Berry has played limited time in the midfield due to an injury-interrupted season.

Standing at 193cm, he’s certainly big enough to play the lead-up forward for the Lions and has hit the scoreboard over the last couple of weeks. Berry slotted three goals against the Eagles in their Round 23 clash, while he kicked one of Brisbane’s nine goals last weekend.

Whether playing a defensive role on Bailey Dale or playing a lead-up forward role, Berry will be dangerous around the big sticks.

SAME GAME MULTI

Daniel Rich 25+ Disposals / Bailey Smith 20+ Disposals / Bailey Dale 20+ Disposals / Zac Bailey Any Time Goal Scorer = $4.00

Daniel Rich managed 29 disposals in the Round 4 clash against the Bulldogs, and has had 25+ disposals in 73% of his games this season. Bailey Dale fell one disposal short of 20 touches against the Bombers, the first time he hasn’t had 20+ disposals in ten weeks – covering in 86% of his games this season. Bailey Smith has had 20+ disposals in seven of his last eight games, covering in 73% of his games this season. Zac Bailey has kicked a goal in 70% of his games this season, managing at least one goal in 12 of his last 15 games.