Sportsbet’s punting AFL guru and star of the Richo, Browny and Hummer podcast, Nathan Brown, gives his AFL tips for the upcoming weekend of matches. Here’s Browny’s AFL tips for week 1 of the finals.

Best Bet

Tom Liberatore – Disposals Line Under (TBC)

The last time Port played the Dogs, Willem Drew was assigned the task to tag Libba keeping him to just 17 possessions. He averages 24.17 and I think they need to go down the same path as he’s been a key piece in the Dogs engine room.

He’s been in hot form for the last two finals recording 35 possessions against Essendon and again last week he got the Dogs going with the first 2 goals against Brisbane before slowing him down.

Next Best

Caleb Daniel

25+ disposals

Averaging 24.9 possessions per game this year Daniel also takes all of the kick-outs so every time he plays on he gets a stat. Port have many attacking forwards who will roll through there in Fantasia, Butters, Gray, Motlop & Duursma so they don’t have a defensive mindset which will allow Daniel space on the way out.

He had 31 last week against Brisbane with a similar attacking forward structure.

Value Bet

Dogs +16.5, Daniel 25+ disposals, Wines 30+ disposals = $6.50 (Same Game Multi)

I think the Dogs can get close, they lead for 112 of 119 minutes against Port in round 23 before going down by 2 points.

I’d just about tip them to win if Keath was playing but his out tempers my expectation to take the line. Wines averages 32 a game and for all the reasons I’ve outlined Caleb Daniel above he rounds out the SGM.