The chase for the AFL’s most coveted award is on! Each week throughout the 2021 season, JACOB WILSON from Champion Data breaks down his Brownlow Predictor, which has forecast five of the last six winners including Nat Fyfe at $6.50 in 2019.
Brownlow Predictor Leaderboard
|1||Taylor Walker (Adel)||5.89||$101|
|2||Dustin Martin (Rich)||4.55||$4.33|
|3||Jack Macrae (WB)||3.81||$21|
|4||Max Gawn (Melb)||3.79||$41|
|5||Clayton Oliver (Melb)||3.73||$21|
Brownlow Tips & Insights
Without dominating any match, Macrae is again a contender for the Brownlow Medal in 2021. He has won 33+ disposals, 20+ uncontested possessions and 2+ assists in all three wins for the Bulldogs.
An issue for the midfielder could be that he is not the favourite for three votes in any match. In Round 1 he laid seven tackles, but his offensive numbers were lower, in Round 2 his offensive numbers were higher, but he failed to lay a tackle and in Round 3 he is likely to get sharked for votes by other Bulldogs players in the mammoth win.
He has polled 51 votes over the last three seasons, but consistently fails to land the three votes, collecting maximum votes just five times in his last 22 polling matches.
Gawn is the clear favourite for the three votes against GWS in Round 3, amassing 2.59 expected votes, the second most for the round behind only Josh Bruce’s 10 goals.
Big Maxy played like a typical midfielder winning 24 disposals, 13 contested possessions, seven clearances and leading the team with nine score involvements. It was just the fifth time in the last five years that Gawn has kicked multiple goals. When rucking, he won 13 hitouts to advantage to his opponents four and the Demons won the clearance count by nine at those stoppages.
The Melbourne skipper is the one ruckman in the league with a solid poling history. In 2019 he had four consecutive matches with 2+ votes and in 2020 he had five consecutive matches with 2+ votes.
Could Tex’s fairytale run end in the most unlikely of Brownlow Medal wins? Taylor Walker has kicked 16 goals from the first three weeks, kicking 5+ goals in each match – the first time he has kicked consecutive 5+ bags in his career.
‘The Big Texan’ is the favourite for the three votes in each of Round 1 and 3 and a chance for additional votes in Adelaide’s Round 2 defeat. Against the Swans, he won 24 disposals, the second-most of his career, and had a team-high 12 score involvements.
Across his career, Walker has kicked 5+ goals in 14 home and away matches before, polling votes in 11 of them for a total of 24 votes. He has the knack of collecting three votes when he features in the votes, polling three votes 41% of the time.
Champion Data’s Brownlow Predictor utilises nine years of polling history, feeding player match stats into a neural network. Player involvements measured by stats such as ranking points, disposals, hitouts, clearances, inside 50s, tackles, and contested possessions are considered by the model, as well as the result and final margin for the player’s team. Adjustments are also made for player polling history.