The footy’s back and so is the chase for the AFL’s most coveted award, the Brownlow Medal. Each week throughout the 2021 season, JACOB WILSON breaks down the Champion Data Brownlow Predictor, which has forecast the last two winners, including Nat Fyfe at $6.50 in 2019.
Brownlow Predictor Leaderboard
|1||Dustin Martin (Rich)||4.55||$4.50|
|2||Clayton Oliver (Melb)||3.70||$21|
|3||Taylor Walker (Adel)||3.60||$251|
|4||Andrew Brayshaw (Freo)||3.54||$67|
|5||Travis Boak (Port)||3.44||$8.00|
Martin was again best on ground in Round 2. He has now been the top-rated player in each of his last five matches, a feat only achieved once in the last decade (Patrick Dangerfield 2016).
Against the Hawks among teammates, he was second for disposals (28) and contested possessions (10, equal first for clearances (4) and clearly No.1 for score involvements (11) and assists (5).
Martin’s 11 assists from his first two matches are two more than any other player on record.
He is the favourite for the three votes in each of his first two matches and is 0.85 votes clear of second place.
With help from Max Gawn, Clayton Oliver is the clear favourite for the three votes from his Round 2 performance against the Saints.
The Demon dominated around the contest leading the match for disposals (37), contested possessions (21) and clearances (11).
His 2.10 expected votes from Round 2 were second only to Andrew Brayshaw. He leads the league for contested possessions after two weeks with 36.
Oliver does not have a great polling history though, collecting just 1 vote from 45% matches in which he has polled in, that dramatically contrasts to Patrick Dangerfield’s 15% one vote rate.
Andrew Brayshaw has rocketed into fourth place on the predictor with an impressive start to the 2021 season.
He won the third-most disposals of his career in Round 1 and the second-most disposals of his career in Round 2.
As a junior Brayshaw’s ability to hit the scoreboard from the midfield stood out, leading the NAB league for assists and kicking eight goals from his 10 matches.
He did not kick a goal in 2020 but has already kicked three goals from his first two matches, taking his game to the next level.
Brayshaw showed an ability to poll strongly in 2020 collecting nine votes from a six-game stretch in the middle of the season.
Champion Data’s Brownlow prediction is done using nine years of past history, feeding player match stats into a neural network. Player involvements measured by stats such as ranking points, disposals, hitouts, clearances, inside 50s, tackles, and contested possessions are considered by the model, as well as the result and final margin for the player’s team. Adjustments are also made for player polling history.