The footy’s back and so is the chase for the AFL’s most coveted award, the Brownlow Medal. Each week throughout the 2021 season, JACOB WILSON breaks down the Champion Data Brownlow Predictor which has forecast the last two winners, including Nat Fyfe at $6.50 in 2019.

Brownlow Predictor Leaderboard

RankPlayerPredicted VotesOdds
1T.Walker (Adel)2.57N/A
2T.Boak (PA)2.56$10
3D.Martin (Rich)2.50$6.00
4B.Smith (WB)2.50$41
5C.Mills (Syd)2.15$101

Brownlow Tips

Travis Boak

2021 AFL Brownlow Medal

The Port star looks a likely Brownlow contender again after finishing second in 2020 with 21 votes from just 17 matches after 16 votes in 2019.

Boak had the second-highest expected votes tally from Round 1 with 2.56 after recording the second-most disposals (27) for Port and leading the team for contested possessions (13), clearances (7), score involvements (12) and also kicking two goals. He had the most disposals for his side in the second quarter where the Power kicked eight goals to one.

The former skipper has also become somewhat of an early season Brownlow specialist. He polled four votes in the first two weeks in 2019 and eight votes in the first three weeks in 2020.

Dustin Martin

2021 AFL Brownlow Medal

Martin started the season just as he finished it in 2020, as the top-rated player on the ground.

Including last years finals series, Martin has been the top-rated player on the ground in four consecutive matches. His 31 disposals and 640 metres gained are impressive numbers, but his six assists were a round high, while his 12 score involvements were three more than any teammate and he also kicked two goals.

While Dusty did not poll quite as heavily as predicted in 2020, he has averaged 23.6 Brownlow votes per year over his last five seasons. Barring injury or suspension, it’s impossible to see him not around the mark again in 2021.

Callum Mills

2021 AFL Brownlow Medal

A new season and a new role for Callum Mills, spending 75% of his playing time as a centre bounce midfielder up from just 13% last year.

In Sydney’s shock Round 1 victory over Brisbane, Mills led the Swans for disposals with 29 (next best 24), had 10 score involvements and kicked two goals – the first time in his career that he had kicked multiple goals. He also had 19 of his 29 disposals in the middle two quarters where Sydney gained their ascendancy.

The former pick 3 doesn’t have a great polling history, collecting just five votes from his 92 matches, but this the first time we will see him roam through the midfield and a breakout year looks likely. Don’t expect to see his odds in triple figures for long if his form continues.