The chase for the AFL’s most coveted individual award is on! Each week throughout the 2021 season, JACOB WILSON from Champion Data breaks down his Brownlow Predictor, which has forecast five of the last six winners including Nat Fyfe at $6.50 in 2019 and provides some Brownlow tips to follow.
Brownlow Predictor Leaderboard
|1||Ollie Wines (PA)||30.48||$2.75|
|2||Jack Steele (STK)||24.63||$9.00|
|3||Jack Macrae (WB)||24.48||$41.00|
|4||Christian Petracca (MELB)||23.66||$13.00|
|5||Marcus Bontempelli (WB)||23.41||$3.75|
Ollie’s Brownlow To Lose
Ollie Wines finished the season as the new favourite for the Brownlow after likely picking up votes against fellow contenders in Marcus Bontempelli and Jack Macrae in the final round.
Wines won match highs for disposals (34), contested possessions (17) and tackles (9) and kicked a crucial fourth quarter goal. He will face stiff competition though from Travis Boak (31 disposals and 2 goals) and Robbie Gray (25 disposals and 2 goals).
Consistency has been the key for Wines, he has 16 matches with at least one expected vote. By comparison, Marcus Bontempelli only has 11 such matches. Wines has been the player most written about in these articles, dating back to Round 5 when he was sitting at $81.
Steele Storming Home
Jack Steele made the Brownlow podium last year with 20 votes and looks set to reach the top three for a second consecutive season.
He finished the season with a bang against Fremantle, posting team highs for disposals (36), contested possessions (17), metres gained (446) and clearances (6) in St Kilda’s comprehensive victory.
On a per 100-minute basis compared to his 2020 season he averaged more disposals (+3), contested possessions (+0.6), clearances (+0.2), tackles (+2) and just 0.1 fewer goals.
Expect a slow burn if you bet on Steele, he has just 6.29 expected votes in the first 10 rounds, ranked 25th in the league, but has 18.34 expected votes from Round 11 onwards, ranked second in the league.
Definitely one for the multiples and Ollie’s biggest threat for the win according to the Predictor.
Macrae For Top Dog?
The betting markets have Marcus Bontempelli comfortably outpolling Jack Macrae this year, but the predictor has Macrae in the lead. The same was said last year with Bontempelli the favourite for the most votes at the Bulldogs, but Macrae had 15 votes to Bontempelli’s 10. Bontempelli hasn’t won more votes than Macrae in a season since 2017.
Across the year Macrae averages more disposals (+7), contested possessions (+2), clearances (+1) and leads the league for score assists. Bontempelli averaged more metres gained (+95), score involvements (+0.4) with the big differentiator being goals with Bontempelli kicking 26 to Macrae’s five.
Bontempelli is still every chance to outpoll Macrae this year, but there is value to be found when looking at Macrae’s markets.