The chase for the AFL’s most coveted individual award is on! Each week throughout the 2021 season, JACOB WILSON from Champion Data breaks down his Brownlow Predictor, which has forecast five of the last six winners including Nat Fyfe at $6.50 in 2019, and provides some Brownlow tips to follow.
Brownlow Predictor Leaderboard
|1||Jack Macrae (WB)||9.06||$10|
|2||Max Gawn (Melb)||8.85||$19|
|3||Ollie Wines (Port)||7.67||$15|
|4||Christian Petracca (Melb)||7.38||$5.00|
|5||Sam Walsh (Carl)||7.16||$15|
Walsh the Top Blue
Its not Patrick Cripps but Sam Walsh who is the greatest threat for the Brownlow in 2021 at Carlton with Walsh on 7.16 expected votes compared to the skipper’s 2.68. In fact, Harry McKay and Ed Curnow are also ahead of Cripps.
The Blues have won just three matches and Walsh has won 37 disposals in Round 3 and 33 disposals and one goal against the Bombers. He is also a chance to steal some votes in their Round 6 loss against the Lions (33 disposals and one goal) and in Round 1 against the Tigers (31 disposals).
He showed an ability to poll votes late last year, polling three times for six votes from the last month of football.
Ollie Wines has moved in from $81 after Round 5, in to $34 after Round 6 and now in to $15 after Round 7.
Despite the Power losing comfortably in Brisbane, Wines is still a chance to feature in votes for the sixth time this year. He won a match-high 37 disposals and kicked his first goal for the season.
Hopefully, for Wines, the umpires did not notice how many of his disposals were direct turnovers, with his 10 disposal clangers the most by any player in a match this year.
Wines’ newfound ball winning is the most surprising of his improved output. He sits third in the league for disposals after never being in the top 20 before.
There are plenty of votes to go around at Melbourne as they sit undefeated. They hold three of the top six spots on the leaderboard with Oliver the last of these three in sixth.
In Round 7, the Demons had another comfortable win but only Oliver stands a chance to poll out of the big three as Gawn (13 disposals and 6 hitouts to advantage) and Petracca (23 disposals and 0 goals) had very low outputs.
Fritsch’s six goals and Ben Cunnington’s 35 disposals and two goals are most likely to take out the big votes. Across the year Oliver has been collecting big numbers averaging 31 disposals and leading the league for contested possessions.
The big three at Melbourne are already shaping as the most fascinating part of Brownlow night 2021.
Champion Data’s Brownlow Predictor utilises nine years of polling history, feeding player match stats into a neural network. Player involvements measured by stats such as ranking points, disposals, hitouts, clearances, inside 50s, tackles, and contested possessions are considered by the model, as well as the result and final margin for the player’s team. Adjustments are also made for player polling history.