The chase for the AFL’s most coveted individual award is on! Each week throughout the 2021 season, JACOB WILSON from Champion Data breaks down his Brownlow Predictor, which has forecast five of the last six winners including Nat Fyfe at $6.50 in 2019 and provides some Brownlow tips to follow.
Brownlow Predictor Leaderboard
|1||Ollie Wines (Port)||21.90||$4.50|
|2||Marcus Bontempelli (WB)||20.05||$2.50|
|3||Jack Macrae (WB)||19.16||$15.00|
|4||Sam Walsh (Carl)||18.68||$10.00|
|5||Jack Steele (STK)||18.59||$15.00|
Wine Not Ollie?
Ollie Wines improved his lead over Marcus Bontempelli with yet another best on ground performance against the Saints.
Compared to any of his Port Adelaide teammates he won 10 more disposals, six more contested possessions, five more clearances and he kicked a rare goal. His 2.40 expected votes are the second-most for the round.
Wines was especially strong in the crucial final quarter with 13 disposals, 257 metres gained and six clearances. His greatest threat for three votes comes from Saints skipper Jack Steele who won 37 disposals and kicked a goal of his own but in a losing side.
Sammy Storming Home
Sam Walsh’s form just gets better and better with every round.
Against the Magpies, he won a new career high 39 disposals with a kicking efficiency of 83%, his equal best of the season. With Cripps out, Walsh held the midfield reins and his 2.68 expected votes are the most for any player for the round.
In the last six weeks, Walsh has 9.27 expected votes, the third-most in the league behind Jack Steele and Ollie Wines.
Since 1990 the only players younger than Walsh to win the Brownlow medal have been Chris Judd in 2004, Michael Voss in 1996 and Gavin Wanganeen in 1993.
Merrett Top Don?
Darcy Parish is $7 for the Brownlow medal and Zach Merrett is sitting at $26. Parish has 2 career votes and Merrett has 74. The gap in the market is too large.
Parish is averaging 31.4 disposals while Merrett is averaging 32.4. Parish is averaging more contested possessions, clearances and goals, but Merrett is averaging more inside 50s, score assists and tackles. The gap between these two players might not be as great as the odds are suggesting.
Merrett’s form over the last month has been especially strong as teams have turned their focus to shutting down Parish at times, Merrett has averaged 38 disposals and eight score involvements in these four matches.
Keep an eye on Merrett in Essendon markets closer to Brownlow night.