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The Cats bounced back from a loss in the first week of finals to smash the Pies – but can they back it up when they face Brisbane in front of the Gabba crowd? Here are The Wolf’s best bets for the Preliminary Final between Brisbane and Geelong.

Find more AFL tips from The Wolf, including his Port Adelaide v Richmond preview, here.

Best Bet

Brisbane Win

Brisbane v Geelong

The Gabba advantage has been huge for the Lions this season, and The Wolf doesn’t think that will change in this Preliminary Final against Geelong. Brisbane is 10-0 at the Gabba, clearing the line in six of their last nine games on their home ground.

As for the Cats, their Semi Final whitewash of Collingwood was the first time they cleared the line from their last four games and although Geelong were outstanding led by Patrick Dangerfield, the Pies were uncompetitive.

Geelong won the Round 6 clash between these two teams by 27 points but it was played at the SCG – a ground where the Cats have a pretty good record over the last 10 years, and one the Lions haven’t won at since 2009.

This game will be won in the middle – we saw the dominance from Geelong at centre bounces against Collingwood which helped set the tone, but the Lions have the personnel to take control in this area with Lachie Neale, Jarryd Lyons and Dayne Zorko.

The Cats don’t have a great record as outsiders this season winning just two of six, and with the Brisbane home crowd certainly play a part in this contest the Lions should be able to apply enough pressure to Geelong’s ‘keepings off’ game style and reach their first Grand Final since 2004.

Next Best

Total Points Over 120.5

Brisbane v Geelong

Both teams are capable of kicking big scores, and their recent games indicate that this should clear the 120.5 total points line.

The Lions have gone overs in their last four games this season including their Qualifying Final against the Tigers, while the Cats have gone overs in four of their last six games including last week when they piled on 100 points against the hapless Magpies.

Their Round 6 game finished at 119 total points – but that was played at the SCG. The Gabba has been housing some high-scoring affairs the last six weeks, with 8 of the last 11 games going overs and 7 of those clearing 120.5 points.

Brisbane and Geelong can both score in a hurry, so The Wolf expects this points line to easily be cleared in pristine Queensland conditions.

Value Bet

Patrick Dangerfield 2+ Goals

Brisbane v Geelong

It’s hard to imagine Chris Scott taking Dangerfield away from their inside 50 after the display he produced against the Pies.

Dangerfield finished with four goals for the game, with Scott relying on his midfielders to get the job done which provides the Cats the luxury of allowing Danger to spend more time up forward.

He trained with the forward group on Wednesday Night which sends the message that we’ll likely see Dangerfield spending plenty of time around the goals, and his recent form indicates that if Geelong can afford to keep him up forward, they will.

In Dangerfield’s last five games he’s kicked multiple goals in three of them, combining for 10 goals over that period. He was best afield against the Swans in Round 18 kicking three, and once again was the catalyst early in Geelong’s win last week. Expect Chris Scott to give Dangerfield every opportunity possible as a forward Saturday night.

Same Game Multi

Patrick Dangerfield Anytime Goal Scorer / Dayne Zorko 15+ Disposals / Brandon Parfitt 15+ Disposals / Eric Hipwood Anytime Goal Scorer = $5.00

Dayne Zorko is a key piece for Brisbane adding experience to this young Lions outfit, notching up 19 touches last week and 18 in their Round 6 clash against the Cats. Parfitt will spend most of his time around the ball, potentially doing a defensive role on Lachie Neale, coming off 17 touches against the Pies and collecting 19 in Geelong’s Round 6 win against Brisbane. Eric Hipwood didn’t snag one against Richmond which means he’s due, kicking a goal in 13 of his last 14 games prior to the Qualifying Final.

Find more AFL tips from The Wolf, including his Port Adelaide v Richmond preview, here.