It’s Round 19 and spots in the finals remain up for grabs with seven teams fighting for the last two positions. There’s some crucial games this round including the Tigers up against the Cats, but without Dustin Martin, they’ll have their work cut out for them.
Here are The Wolf’s AFL tips for Round 19.
Port Adelaide / Brisbane (-15.5) / Geelong / West Coast v St Kilda Under 159.5 Points = $4.75
Port prevail in prison-bar battle
The Wolf went against the Power last week when they faced the Saints which was a costly error – never doubt Port Adelaide against a bottom ten team, and facing the 15th placed Pies they should clear the line on Friday Night.
Although this will be Port Adelaide’s home game at Marvel Stadium, the Power actually have a reasonable record at the ground in 2021 winning and covering the line in all three games there this season. Collingwood on the other hand is yet to cover the line in their three games at the ground this season.
With a win over the Saints last round, Port Adelaide extended their record against teams in the bottom ten to 10-0 with an average winning margin of 33 points. Seven of those ten wins were over this line of 18.5 points, although their Round 10 win over Collingwood wasn’t one of them.
The Power have won six of the last eight against the Pies, and with the winner covering the line in Collingwood’s last six games this season I expect Port Adelaide to easily win this one.
Same Game Multi: Port Adelaide / Ollie Wines 30+ Disposals / Travis Boak 25+ Disposals / Jack Ginnivan Any Time Goal Scorer = $6.00
Kangas kings of the cover
Although North Melbourne sit bottom of the ladder with three wins and a draw this season, the Kangaroos are the kings of the cover in 2021.
Despite another loss to the Bombers in Round 18, North Melbourne still managed to cover the line meaning they’ve now done so in 10 of their last 11 games including their last seven.
The Kangaroos have a good recent record against Carlton winning five of the last six, whilst covering the line in five of those six including the last three times they’ve met. The Blues won last year’s clash with North Melbourne but only by 7 points.
Carlton came from behind to beat Collingwood in Round 18 making that the second time they’ve covered the line in the last seven weeks.
This is a genuine danger game for Carlton which is emphasised in the head-to-head odds. The Wolf is keen to ride the covering Kangaroos and will take the 8.5 point head start in this.
Same Game Multi: Sam Walsh 30+ Disposals / Aaron Hall 25+ Disposals / Jack Ziebell 20+ Disposals / Ed Curnow 20+ Disposals = $5.00
Suns crash in Q-Clash
Surprisingly the Suns enter this Q-Clash playing the better footy than the Lions over the last few weeks, but if previous Q-Clashes are anything to go by, expect Brisbane to bounce back in a big way.
The Lions have won seven of the last eight games against the Suns, including Round 9 when they smashed Gold Coast at Metricon Stadium by 73 points. From Brisbane’s last seven wins over the Suns the average margin has been 46 points, winning five of those games by 40+ points – as a result they’ve covered the line in their last four games against the Suns and in eight of the last ten.
Although it’s only an hour down the road, Brisbane will be thrilled to return back to the Gabba after two horror outings at Metricon Stadium – they’ve won their last six games at their home ground clearing the line in five of those wins.
Credit to Stuart Dew’s men who have shown significant improvement over the last three weeks, but expect the Lions to spring out of their slump covering the line of 27.5 points, with a 40+ victory at $2.60 great value.
Same Game Multi: Touk Miller 30+ Disposals / Jarryd Lyons 25+ Disposals / Lachie Neale 25+ Disposals / David Swallow 20+ Disposals = $4.00
The Saints Strangle
Both West Coast and St Kilda are as hard to pick as a broken nose this season, and The Wolf will steer clear of the result in this one – instead, he’s very keen on the unders when they meet at Optus Stadium on Saturday.
Five of the last six games have gone unders at Optus Stadium and both teams have played in some low-scoring contests since their Round 14 bye.
Over the last four rounds, St Kilda are playing in the lowest scoring games in the competition, with an average total game score of 127 per game. This is off the back of conceding the fewest points in the competition since Round 10 at just 63.7 points per game – since the bye, it’s even better conceding just 55 points per game.
Although we often talk about West Coast’s firepower up forward, they’re struggling to consistently kick a score, ranked 16th in the AFL since Round 10 with 68.3 points per game – alongside Gold Coast and Adelaide as the only teams scoring less than 70 points over that period. Since the bye, they’re ranked 17th averaging just 56.8 points, which includes 98 points against the Crows.
Expect the Saints to strangle the Eagles in this in what will be another low-scoring game.
Same Game Multi: Luke Dunstan 25+ Disposals / Brad Crouch 25+ Disposals / Andrew Gaff 25+ Disposals / Sebastian Ross 20+ Disposals = $4.20
Dees keep Dogs on a leash
The top-two teams in the competition will face off again after the Demons wom their Round 11 clash by 28 points, and The Wolf thinks they can repeat the dose again. Melbourne has now won four of the last six against the Western Bulldogs, covering the line in five of those games.
Against the top-ten teams this season Melbourne has an 8-0 record with a percentage of 139%, and have bounced back on the three previous occasions they entered a game after not taking home the four points the week prior – they’ve defeated the Western Bulldogs, Essendon and Port Adelaide in bounce back performances.
The MCG will be an advantage to the Dees in this, with the Dogs only playing there twice this season losing their last game there against Richmond – the only time the Tigers have cleared the line at the MCG this season.
With the Bulldogs failing to cover the line in their last three games, The Wolf expects Melbourne’s unbeaten run against top-eight teams to continue in a close one.
Same Game Multi: Marcus Bontempelli 25+ Disposals / Christian Salem 25+ Disposals / Bailey Dale 20+ Disposals / Angus Brayshaw 15+ Disposals = $4.33
Despite starting the season with so much promise off the back of the wooden spoon last year, Adelaide’s season is spiraling out of control winning two of their last 13 games.
The Crows have lost by 40+ points in their last three games, covering the line just twice from their last seven games and it’s really hard to see them turning the corner at Marvel Stadium against the Hawks.
Hawthorn has won four of the last five games against Adelaide including Round 6 where they came from behind to win by three points.
Adelaide is 1-5 from their last six games when listed at $2.40 or shorter, and with all four of Hawthorn’s wins being by 1-39 this season The Wolf is much more confident in taking the margin than the line in this one.
Same Game Multi: Rory Laird 30+ Disposals / Brodie Smith 20+ Disposals / Liam Shiels 20+ Disposals / James Cousins 20+ Disposals = $4.50
The Dockers have won the last three against the Swans and enter this at long odds, currently paying $3.90. We know they don’t travel well, but they’ve had some luck at Metricon Stadium in recent times winning three of their last four at the ground whilst covering in all four of those games – fair to say they’d much rather play this red-hot Sydney outfit there instead of at the SCG.
Sydney came from 35 points down to beat their arch-nemesis in the Giants, winning their first game at Metricon from their last five meetings at the ground. Off the back of this comeback win to go with dismantling West Coast and the Western Bulldogs, they enter this Round 19 clash as extremely short-priced favourites at $1.26.
But the short-priced favourites tag doesn’t sit well with this Sydney team, covering once from the last five games they’ve entered as $1.26 favourite or shorter.
The Swans are coming off an emotional win while Fremantle enter this off a 10-day break looking to rectify their performance against the Cats. Although Sydney should be too strong, The Wolf expects Fremantle to cover.
Same Game Multi: Jake Lloyd 25+ Disposals / Andrew Brayshaw 25+ Disposals / Oliver Florent 15+ Disposals / Tom Hickey 15+ Disposals = $4.00
Catastrophe for ravaged Richmond
The Tiges scored a big win in Round 17 to stay in the finals race, but it was a costly result with Dustin Martin out for the remainder of the season – and because of that Geelong shouldn’t have any issues covering this 16.5 points line.
Geelong belted Richmond in Round 8 by 63 points piling on a whopping 126 points – although there’s no Jeremy Cameron this time around, they’ve still improved significantly over the last ten weeks while Richmond have gone backwards.
The Tigers have failed to cover the line in their last seven losses this season, and at the MCG they’ve covered the line just once from their eight games there this season, winning just one from their last six at the ground.
The Cats would certainly prefer to be playing this at GMHBA Stadium, but they have won four of their five games at the MCG this season and they’re firing on all cylinders covering the line in their last three games. They’ll cover in this again against a ravaged Richmond.
Same Game Multi: Shaun Higgins 20+ Disposals / Sam Menegola 20+ Disposals / Isaac Smith 20+ Disposals / Tom Atkins 15+ Disposals = $4.33
Goals at the Gold Coast
A difficult game to tip to finish off the round with finals repercussions on the line for both teams. The Giants have won six of the last seven against the Bombers, entering as favourite in all seven, while the Bombers have covered the line in five of their last six meetings. With this in mind, The Wolf will play the total points.
When these two met in Round 8 it was the Giants that were victorious by 2 points, but it was the total points that were eye-opening coming to 212 with both teams kicking over 100 points.
Eight of the Giants’ last 10 games have gone overs with seven of those going over the current line of 162.5 points, while Essendon remains the team that plays in the highest scoring games in the competition averaging 172.8 per game.
Since Round 10 the Giants concede the second most points in the competition averaging 85.3 points against, and with Essendon being the third highest scoring team this season averaging 88.3 points we can expect another shootout on Sunday evening going over the 162.5 total points.
Same Game Multi: Tim Taranto 25+ Disposals / Nick Hind 20+ Disposals / Callan Ward 20+ Disposals / Nick Haynes 15+ Disposals = $4.33