Another massive week of AFLW action coming up this weekend, kicking off with two sides who will be desperate for a win on Friday night. Here are my AFL Round 4 tips.
St Kilda couldn’t match it with Carlton last week who needed to get their first win of the season. Greiser opened the scoring for the Saints and looked to have control in the opening term, but some inexperience cost them as they only managed one more goal after this the entire match.
Patrikios, again, starred with 20 disposals, and Kate Sheirlaw had an admirable captain’s effort, although were flattened by a better team.
The Cats are still struggling to find any forward success. They have only scored four goals, and have had nine goalless quarters so far this season.
The game will be played in the heat at Moorabbin, and those wider wings will suit the Saints midfielders with a bit more space.
Head to head is very short, at just $1.20, so not worth a dip. Peter Searle would be disappointed if her team can’t cover the line of -15.5 against the bottom team in the competition, and the overs have been covered at each game at Moorabbin this season.
Value: Greiser 2+ goals $3
The Tigers turned around what could have been yet another ugly loss for them against the Pies last week, with a last quarter surge going down by just 17.
Gabby Seymour was dominant the ruck for Collingwood in the absence of All Australian Sharnie Layton, but the midfield of the Pies was too dominant in the end.
After a slow start, Carlton finally got their first win on the board against the Saints. Presparkis again showing why she is the reigning Best and Fairest winner with 24 touches and a goal, and Nic Stevens was clinical with two majors.
Humanising the game a bit, Jess Hosking will face her twin sister Sarah Hosking for the first time, with Sarah making the move to Tigerland this year. Check out their Instagram pages for a bit of fun and pre-game banter if you feel like having a laugh.
Hard to see the Tigers getting their first win here. Mon Contii has been solid, but with no real support around her, she will be out of her depth with Presparkis, O’Dea and Gee to face around her. Richmond captain, Katie Brennan will want to lift, so far scoring 0.5 for the season.
The Tiges haven’t been blown out of the water yet this season, and they have played top tier teams in Brisbane, Melbourne and Collingwood, so look to Carlton 1-39 or Richmond at the line or +22.5.
Fremantle haven’t lost a game since 2019, the Suns, well, they haven’t won a game since 2020. There hasn’t been much smiling for the Suns this year, last weeks 10 point loss was hidden by the weather in Sydney and they carry a percentage of just 32.4%, which, in basic terms, for those who have forgotten how it works from school, means they’re not scoring much and getting scored against a lot.
Fremantle are the other end of the spectrum, with a percentage of 225.5% and having just beaten Adelaide by 30 points at Norwood, where they kept them goalless until the final term. They will be full of confidence.
Kiara Bowers is having a perfect year, with what should be three best on ground votes, and Gemma Houghton is unstoppable with 6.2 for the season so far,
This should be a training run for Fremantle, with their first ‘normal’ prep in weeks where they haven’t travelled or been in quarantine.
Value: Gemma Houghton 2+ goals
Multi: Fremantle 40+, Gemma Houghton ATG, Sabrina Duffy ATG
North won’t be completely happy with their performance in the second term last week, which ultimately cost them the game. They conceded six goals to one, yet only went down by nine points to Melbourne, who have put their hands up as a team to beat.
Meanwhile, the Pies cruised through their win against the Tiges, but probably weren’t overly happy with their result either only winning by 17 points.
These sides met in the semi finals last year where North took the win by just 2 points. North are absolutely littered with stars all over, but the Pies midfield has some serious A graders in it as well. Bonnici starred last week with 32 disposals and compliments Davies and Lambert well. I think this is going to be a really good, high quality match.
The market suggests North here, but the pies at the line of +9.5 for me is what I’m looking at. That little head start is giving me confidence the confidence I need.
Putting that into the featured multi which has North’s captain Emma Kearny for 15+ disposals and a goal with Chloe Molloy as an any time goal scorer. Emma’s stats speak for themselves, and Chloe, since moving to the forward line after some time at half back, has scored at least one goal in her past seven matches.
Featured Multi: Pies at line, Emma Kearny Goal + 15 disposals, Chloe Molloy ATG ($7.50)
The Crows got a bit of a bruising last week against Freo, so they’ll be excited to take on the undefeated Lions. This will be Brisbane’s first challenge though having only played bottom sides so far, but they’re sitting pretty on top of the ladder with a huge percentage which should give them confidence.
Adelaide will do that, challenge them, but I don’t think they’ll have the depth in the forward line to finish the job. Brisbane on the other hand have multiple forwards who can do damage on the scoreboard in Wardlaw, Davidson and Bodey.
The 1-39 market is a great market to look at in the AFLW. It gives you a bit more value in games that you know won’t be a blow out as only four matches have exceeded that 40 point margin this season.
The featured multi on site for this match has Marinoff for 20 touches; she is the engine for the Crows, she finds her own ball and averages 23. Tying that in with Ashleigh Woodland as an anytime scorer. She was very quiet last week, so expect her to lift. Dakota Davidson has been a star this year, kicking six in the past two matches, so 2+ goals there.
Featured Multi: Marinoff 20+ disposals, Woodland ATG, Davidson 2+ goals
Best Bet: Davidson + Wardlaw ATG
Melbourne have put their hands up as flag contenders after taking down premiership favourites North last week. A six goal second term was what did it for them, meanwhile, the Doggies had an ugly win against the Cats in some average conditions.
Paxman starred for not just her incredible mullet, but also for her stats with 25 disposals and a goal, meanwhile Jackie Parry couldn’t miss with three goals off just eight touches.
Melbourne should be way too good for the young pups here, so I think they’ll be able to cover the line. Their forward line of Hore, Cunningham, and Parry is so strong in both the air and on the deck. There is not enough depth in the Doggies with Ellie Blackburn doing the majority of the work and is really carrying the Dogs.
Speaking of Blackburn, she’s the star of the featured multi. She has kicked a QUARTER of the Doggies goals this year, and averaging 23 disposals as well. She’s in for 20+ disposals and a goal. Tying that in with Kate Hore, another player who’s found the middle every game this year, as an any time scorer there.
Featured multi: Blackburn 20+ disposal, Blackburn ATG, Hore ATG
Value: Parry 2+ goals, Cunningham 2+ goals
The Eagles have been disappointing this year, and with the loss of their best player and captain, Dana Hooker in recent weeks, it will probably stay like that. They’ve copped a 45-point thrashing from Brisbane, and some torrential rain really made for a flattering scoreline against Fremantle who really did dominate the game.
The Giants have only managed one win this season, but with a very disrupted pre-season involving over a month on the road, they should settle in now they’re back home.
The weather in Sydney, and particularly Blacktown International Sportspark, has not been favourable for women footy and has really evened out teams. Gold Coast at the line last week was only possible for the weather, so keep an eye on the line and the rain radar for a late tip there. If the line extends to above two goals, jump on.
The Giants would have to forget to turn up on time to not win here, but with 90% chance of rain, in a completely exposed paddock, it won’t be by much as the Eagles will do what they did to Fremantle, and make it difficult for them.
Neither team great scorers so staying away from any time goal scorers, and just a head to head tip here
WCE @ line IF above 12.5